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Demographer predicts rise of county’s elderly

By Eric Czarnik
C & G Staff Writer

PONTIAC — County officials heard oceans of evidence June 19 that a soaring aging population — or “Silver Tsunami” —will strike Oakland County in the next couple of decades.

Kurt Metzger, research director for City Connect Detroit, lectured about demographic trends in the Oakland County Board of Commissioners’ Auditorium in Pontiac. The lecture was sponsored by the Oakland County Senior Coalition.

Metzger said that while many cities try to attract talented young people, they shouldn’t regard the Silver Tsunami with a frightened, “look out, here they come” attitude.

“I’m proud to be a card-carrying member of the Silver Tsunami,” he said.

Metzger came equipped with plenty of commentary based on data from the Southeast Michigan Council of Governments.

Oakland County is on course to double its senior population over the next 25 years, he said. Meanwhile, the county’s population growth began slowing in 2000 and went negative for the first time in 2008, he said. The aging of baby boomers, the economy, fewer births, more deaths and less immigration are responsible for this trend, he said.

Furthermore, 2011 will be the first year baby boomers will begin turning 65. More than 50 percent of baby boomers live in nine states, and one of those is Michigan, he said.

“Right now, Michigan is looked at as an old state, an aging state,” Metzger said. “We’re beginning to look much more like Florida.”

Within the county, the highest senior population is currently south of Pontiac and from Farmington Hills east. Bloomfield Hills is among the communities with the oldest population, but even trendy cities like Royal Oak will not be immune to the Silver Tsunami, Metzger said.

The graying of Oakland County will bring its own set of challenges. Metzger predicted that tomorrow’s seniors will cause health care spending to increase, and they will compete against younger workers for employment.

“Now with the recession, people are forced to go back into the workforce as people have seen their 401(k)s and their pensions kind of cut back,” he said. “The idea of … a safe, secure retirement has changed.”

However, the Silver Tsunami’s challenges are paired with opportunities, said Jim McGuire, research, policy development and advocacy director of the Area Agency on Aging 1-B.

For instance, McGuire said, retirees provide $4 in revenue for every $3 that they cost in government services. “Studies suggest that seniors spend about 92 percent of their monthly income each month,” he said. “The senior is bringing income into our economy.”

As a result, Metzger said it’s important for Oakland County to consider making its communities attractive for everybody.

To do this, he urged communities to amend their zoning ordinances and give leeway to a variety of single-family housing alternatives, such as home sharing and accessory dwelling units. This could cause families to provide living quarters for grandparents, he said.

“Older people want to be around younger people,” he said. “They want the same kinds of assets and amenities.”

Metzger added that senior-oriented communities must have better street lighting, easily accessible sidewalks and street benches. Community organizations also should offer more programs for hobbies, such as gardening, cooking or photography, he said.

“I think we hear more and more that people just don’t want to be pushed off in a corner,” he said.

You can reach Staff Writer Eric Czarnik at eczaarnik@candgnews.com or at (586) 498-1058.


Copyright © 2008 C & G Publishing
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